KALONZO TOPS AZIMIO – ONE KENYA RUNNING MATE REPORT

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By MUSOMA

Former Vice President Dr.Kalonzo Musyoka has edged out his competitors in the list of prefered Raila Odinga running mates according to the AZIMO-OKA advisory panel final report released this afternoon.

Noah Wekesa who chairs the committee of eminent persons said that the report to be handed over to Raila today contains a list of three most preferred candidates in order of priority. They are ; Kalonzo Musyoka, Martha Karua and Peter Keneth.

JUSTIFICATION

  • Kalonzo is the most educated, PhD Holder; he is also among the few Senior Counsels the country has. Kalonzo is the most experienced on matters governance having been in Government for almost 30 years where he served as Vice President, Minister, MP.

  • Kalonzo’s influence goes beyond our bounders; as a Pan-Africanist Kalonzo has mediated peace treaties, observed government transitions, overseen elections and made trade deals in the region. You cannot mention peace in Sudan, Somalia and DRC without mentioning his name. He takes credit for recently bringing DRC to East-Africa community. He was appointed by President Uhuru to be Special Envoy for Peace in Southern Sudan.

  • Kalonzo has been Raila’s running mate twice thus can serve effectively under him coz he understands his political language and culture more than anyone else. He has also sacrificed his Presidential ambitious in favour of Raila three times.

  • Kalonzo is the Party Leader of Wiper, is the third largest party the country. He has brought more than 25 legislators who have helped the handshake team to push legislative agendas like BBI and the Political parties amendment bill in both chambers. None of his competitors has brought such stake on the table.

  • Kalonzo is the only candidate who solely controls a voting block with a sizable amount of votes without the help of Raila or Uhuru. Kalonzo can deliver over 2 Million votes from his region on his own unlike his competitors for the position who need endorsements by their King Pins. Again Kalonzo’s Ukambani voting block gave Raila an everage of 90% votes and a good number of legislators in the last two elections under NASA and CORD.

  • Kalonzo vote base i very fragile a can make or break the AZIMO-OKA coalition because of previous failed promises made by Raila that he will endorse their Party Leader in subsequent elections. Despite having been betrayed in two coalition MOUs the Wiper fraternity has stuck with Odinga. Taking away the running mate position when Raila has the biggest probability to become President will be deemed utmost betrayal.Picking another candidate, especially from a zone that never voted for Raila will be considered opportunistic and trigger fallouts in the coalition.

  • The success of Raila in ballot will largely depend on his ability to retain his traditional voting blocks in Nyanza, Western, Ukambani and Coast. The rival coalition has given Mulembe nation and Coast a big stake that can potentially interfere with voting patterns against Raila and Azimio cant afford to take huge risks like losing Ukambani.

  • There is no existing scientific research that indicates that Raila will get sizable votes in Mt. Kenya, where most Kalonzo competitors come from just because he gives them a running mate slot. Like wise there is no probability that Raila and his key opponent Ruto will lose sizable votes from Mt. Kenya, Coast, Western or Nyanza if they don’t pick their running mates from there. Ukambani is an homogeneous block that doesn’t divide it’s votes.

  • Azimio – OKA will not lose votes substantially if they deny the other five top running mate contenders; Karua, Keneth, Sabina, Oparanya andJoho as the case might be for Kalonzo. It is only in his backyard where there is heightened political tensions over the running mate issue coz it has traditionally been their’s. The “NO KALONZO – NO RAILA” mantra is gaining currency and that factor cannot be ignored in Kenyan politics. Raila and President Uhuru can guarantee no fallouts in their strongholds if the running mate slot goes elsewhere but for Kalonzo it’s visibly difficult.

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